Unwrapping Insights: Black Friday Trends 2023

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Marjorie Weinberg, a Senior Risk Underwriter at Atradius, represented the US in the Atradius Group’s analysis of Black Friday this year.


The article examined Black Friday shopping and its potential impact on the retail industry across various countries. In the US, the prevailing trend indicates that brick-and-mortar stores will face challenges compared to online shopping platforms.

The US typically initiates price reductions earlier than other countries. Last year, approximately 46% of consumers began their holiday shopping before November, up from 39% in 2019. This year seems to be following a similar pattern, with 39% of shoppers expressing their intention to start shopping earlier than usual during this holiday season. Over the years, Black Friday deals have become available before the actual event, with many retailers offering doorbuster savings on Thanksgiving evening. Online deals often go live before Black Friday as well, with some retailers launching deals as early as November 1. Major price drops on sought-after items at top retailers are expected to start on the Monday before Black Friday, November 21, and continue through Cyber Monday on November 28.

Due to inflation in 2023, Americans are predicted to experience the slowest growth in holiday sales in five years, according to the National Retail Federation. Holiday sales during November and December are expected to rise by 3-4%, a decrease from the 5.4% rise in 2022 and the 12.7% rise in 2021. While supply chain and inventory challenges have decreased since last year, obstacles persist. Retailers are grappling with distressed debt exchanges, and high-interest rates pose a challenge for companies struggling with debt. Online sales growth is anticipated to account for more than 60% of the overall retail sales growth, leaving brick-and-mortar stores with a modest growth rate of under 2%.

To enhance success, priorities include online shopping and advanced technology, which enable the display of all products currently in stock, shipping times, and available locations for each product. Additional details from the US can be found in the full report, along with insights into the retail industry during this holiday season in six other countries. You can read the full report here.

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