Holiday Shopping 2025: What’s Next for Consumer Durables and Retail Sales

Hi readers! The holiday season is officially here, and retailers are gearing up for the biggest shopping month of the year. But this year feels a little different. Prices are high, interest rates are elevated, tariffs are lurking, and yes, the extended government shutdown left its mark. So, what does all this mean for your holiday shopping?

Marjorie Weinberg, Senior Underwriter at Atradius, gives us the details.

Let’s dive in.

Are Tariffs Crashing the Party?

No one likes a party crasher, right? Tariffs have been sneaking in and quietly pushing up prices on imported goods. Think electronics, home appliances, even fashion. U.S. consumer durables sales are expected to grow between 2.3% and 4.7% this year. That is slower than last year’s boom, thanks to fading global economic boosts and a more cautious consumer mindset.

Big-box stores can absorb some of these costs, but smaller retailers? They are feeling the strain. Some even skipped Black Friday altogether to protect margins and brand value. So, if you noticed fewer jaw-dropping deals this year, tariffs are likely the culprit.

The Bigger Picture: Retail Sales and Consumer Behavior

Here’s the good news. Despite the challenges, retail sales bounced back in October. According to the National Retail Federation, total retail sales were up 5% year over year, with core retail sales up nearly 4.9%. Digital products stole the show with a 22% surge, and clothing and sporting goods were not far behind.

Here’s a quick snapshot of October’s winners:

• Digital products: Up 22.39%
• Clothing and accessories: Up 7.89%
• Sporting goods, hobby, music, and books: Up 7.19%
• Electronics and appliances: Up 6.58%
• Furniture and home furnishings: Down 1.7%, thanks to housing market pressures

The NRF expects holiday sales to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to last year, topping $1 trillion. And shoppers are showing up in record numbers. According to the National Retail Federation annual consumer survey, 202.9 million consumers hit stores and websites during the five-day Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday stretch. That is a new record!

What Shoppers Can Expect

• Discounts will be there, but not as deep as before
• Domestic brands may take center stage as retailers look to avoid tariff costs
• Expect more promotions on tech-forward and eco-friendly products
• Financing options and early deals will be common as retailers compete for your attention

Despite mixed economic signals, consumers are still spending. Why? Wages are outpacing inflation, unemployment remains low, and household finances are solid. Many shoppers are buying now before tariffs push prices higher.

Retailers Are Adapting

Retailers know you are watching your wallet, so they are rolling out early deals, buy-now-pay-later options, and seamless online experiences. Omnichannel shopping such as buy online, pick up in store is now the norm, and loyalty programs are getting more aggressive. Larger retailers can negotiate with suppliers and absorb costs, while smaller players are especially vulnerable to tariffs and rising expenses. Dollar stores and niche brands face the highest risk. After unprecedented bankruptcies in 2024, more consolidation could be on the horizon in 2025.

Wrapping It All Up

Holiday shopping in 2025 is not about panic, it is about planning. Tariffs and slowing growth are changing the game, but smart shoppers and savvy retailers can still make this season a win. If you are looking for the best deals, start early, compare prices, and consider domestic or sustainable brands. And if you are a retailer, focus on flexibility and customer experience because that is what will keep shoppers coming back.

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