2026 Outlook: Economic Predictions from Atradius Leaders

Every year, we ask Atradius leaders to share their economic predictions for the year ahead. It has become a tradition we look forward to, and this year is no different.

2025 was full of uncertainty and change, and 2026 promises its own mix of opportunities and challenges. So, let’s unwrap what our experts see coming in the new year.

First up, Gordon Cessford, President of Atradius North America, forecasts steady but modest growth for the U.S. economy in 2026, with GDP expected to rise between 1.6% and 1.9%. Inflation is likely to ease toward 2.5%–3%, while unemployment could tick up slightly to around 4.5%. To support a soft landing, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates.

One key uncertainty? The USMCA joint review scheduled for July 2026. A smooth renewal could strengthen trade and investment flows, but a contentious process might spark tariff concerns and weigh on manufacturing.

Cessford’s advice: “Stay ahead of the curve. Monitor trade negotiations and policy developments to position your business for success.” As an immediate action point, start reviewing your supply chain and trade exposure now. Engage with your partners and advisors to prepare for potential policy shifts, those who plan early will lead the way.

Next, Nikki Kastanakis, Vice President and Regional Unit Director for the Global Unit gives us the North America predictions:

• United States: Slower growth at 1.8%, with inflation trending down but staying above target early in the year.
• Canada: Slower growth at 1.5%, as housing and exports adjust to past rate hikes.
• Mexico: The growth leader at 2% to 3%, fueled by manufacturing and nearshoring.

She also highlights several wild cards like healthcare negotiations, the USMCA review, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions.

She explains that healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act are set to expire at the end of 2025. If not renewed, 30 to 40 million Americans could face sharply higher premiums, tightening disposable income and reshaping consumer spending in early 2026.

And then there’s the big one. Kastanakis explains, “July 2026 marks the first mandatory review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). This review could reshape trade rules across North America. Politics will dominate, and I expect protracted negotiations rather than a quick alignment.”

Her bottom line? “The stage is set for 2026 to be a measured year, potentially showing slight signs of bounce back, or alternatively continuing with tests of resilience. Watch healthcare subsidies, USMCA negotiations, tariff rulings, energy spikes, and broader political developments.”

Patrick Scardina, Senior Manager and Risk Underwriter brings a reality check to 2026. He says, “Inflation will remain above the Fed’s 2 percent target throughout 2026, keeping interest rates stubbornly high.”

He adds that slowing GDP, rising unemployment, and leadership changes at the Federal Reserve will add pressure. Consumers are already feeling the strain as he explains, “Credit card debt has topped $1.2 trillion, with average balances over $6,500 and interest rates above 20 percent.”

Despite this, defaults remain low thanks to strong wages. But companies are absorbing tariff costs to avoid stifling demand. Corporate bankruptcies hit record highs in late 2025 and could climb further in 2026.

Scardina’s warning, “More than half of GDP growth and two-thirds of stock market returns have been driven by AI. These rich valuations raise fears of another bubble and suggest greater market and credit volatility in 2026.”

Now for a tech twist with Dana Bodnar, Senior Economist. Bodnar brings a fresh perspective on what’s powering investment saying “AI-driven investment, especially in data centers, will keep U.S. capital spending strong in the new year, sustaining steady GDP growth.”

But she cautions that this boom hides weakness elsewhere, “We expect two-speed dynamics: tech and adjacent sectors will continue to run hot, while consumer-facing industries remain under pressure.”

This means AI and infrastructure may thrive, while retail and discretionary spending could struggle under the weight of high interest rates and cautious consumers.

Finally, we go global with John Lorié, Chief Economist at Atradius. He says, “Over the past year we have seen unexpected strong growth of global trade in goods, which we now estimate at a figure close to 4%. Unfortunately, we can not expect this to continue.”

Why the slow down? John explains that much of 2025’s strength came from frontloading ahead of tariff hikes and a surge in AI related goods. “Trade in AI-related goods grew almost 20 percent in the first half of the year, compared to a still decent 4% for other goods. North America and Asia were buoyant, while Europe notably lagged.”

This growth was helped by a less intense trade war and a falling uncertainty about trade policy, which supported spending. Lorié discusses the outlook changes in 2026, “We expect trade in AI-related goods to continue as U.S. investments in AI infrastructure remain high. Trade between the U.S. and Asia will keep supporting flows. However, as firms start delivering from stockpiles built during frontloading, trade growth will fall back significantly.”

And then there’s the tariff impact, “The increase in U.S. tariff levies from almost 3% to 18% will increasingly weigh in.”

Lorié says, “All this will lead to very weak global trade growth in 2026, if any. Only in 2027 can we expect a subdued recovery.”

Wrapping it all up

So, what does this mean for 2026? Across the board, our experts agree on one thing, this will be the year of measured progress. Growth will be modest across North America, with Mexico leading and Canada trailing. Inflation should cool but remain above target early on, keeping interest rates higher for longer. Consumers will feel pressure from rising costs and record debt, while companies absorb tariff-related expenses to protect demand.

The common thread? Resilience and recalibration. Businesses that monitor policy changes, manage credit risk, and prepare for uncertainty will be best positioned to succeed.

From all of us at Atradius, thank you for joining us. We wish you a joyful holiday season and a healthy year ahead. Here’s to navigating 2026 with confidence and optimism!

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